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Trucking fleet
How the freight recession and tariffs are hitting the trucking industry—and what comes next
As trucking companies face escalating economic pressure from all sides—tariffs, inflation, geopolitical tension, and an uncertain consumer market—the industry finds itself in an extended period of turbulence. This post, part of WEX’s ongoing series Navigating headwinds: Trucking through uncertainty, features insights from Lindsay Bur, an economist at the American Trucking Associations (ATA), who provides a data-driven outlook on what’s ahead for the freight economy and how carriers can weather the storm.
The freight recession: A longer downturn than expected
The freight industry has been experiencing a sustained downturn since mid-2022 in part due to the supply chain crisis experienced during COVID. While the market isn’t continuing to decline, it’s also not rebounding as quickly as hoped. “We’re not in recessionary territory in the traditional sense because we’re not on the downswing,” says Bur. “But we haven’t seen the strong upswing or return to seasonality that people were expecting.”
This prolonged stagnation has created a new kind of freight recession—not defined by its severity, but by its duration. While many carriers were cautiously optimistic that 2025 would mark the beginning of a turnaround, recently imposed tariffs have undercut that hope, pushing a fragile industry further into uncertainty.
Chart from ATA. These forecasts are as of 5/1/25, and policy changes very quickly these days.
Tariffs are hitting trucking from multiple angles
Tariff policies enacted by the U.S. government in early 2025, including reinstated and expanded duties on goods from countries like China, Mexico, and Canada, are having a broad ripple effect across the trucking industry. According to Bur, the most concerning aspect is how these tariffs drive up costs not just on imported consumer goods, but also on intermediate materials used in domestic manufacturing.
“Roughly 50% of what we import are intermediate goods,” says Bur. “Even if final goods are manufactured in the U.S., rising prices on inputs mean those finished products are still getting more expensive.”
For trucking, that means rising costs across several freight categories:
- Consumer goods: Higher prices reduce demand and slow freight volumes
- Construction materials: Increased costs could dampen flatbed activity
- Manufacturing inputs: Domestic manufacturers may scale back output, reducing LTL shipments
In short, the tariffs affect both the supply and the demand sides of the freight economy.
Chart from ATA. These forecasts are as of 5/1/25, and policy changes very quickly these days.
Stagflation is taking its toll on carriers
The industry is also facing what Bur describes as “stagflation” — rising operating costs at a time when rates and volumes remain flat. Insurance, in particular, is becoming a major expense, fueled by a growing number of nuclear verdicts and high-value cargo theft. A nuclear verdict is defined as a verdict in favor of the plaintiff in an insurance claim with a damage award that goes above $10 million. The term is also used to describe an outcome significantly larger than what anyone expected.
At the same time, many carriers are deferring maintenance or delaying vehicle purchases due to capital constraints. This strategy may offer temporary relief but could lead to larger operational risks down the line.
“Some banks have been hesitant to repossess trucks with declining resale values, but that won’t last forever,” says Bur. “We may soon see a wave of supply contraction as lenders decide to cut their losses.”
Chart from ATA. These forecasts are as of 5/1/25, and policy changes very quickly these days.
Cross-border and port-related freight feel the pinch
Trucking companies engaged in cross-border freight have fared relatively well through the recession so far, thanks to the strength of U.S. trade with Mexico and Canada. However, proposed fees on Chinese-owned ocean carriers and shifting trade routes could disrupt port activity—especially on the West Coast.
“Roughly 50% of freight coming into the Port of L.A. and Long Beach is from China,” says Bur. “That trade is already softening, and intermodal and port drayage carriers could see that decline continue.”
The potential erosion of the de minimis exemption, which currently allows small-value imports to bypass certain duties, could further impact carriers handling e-commerce freight.
Which carriers are most vulnerable?
While large fleets may have the financial cushion and resources to adapt, Bur is most concerned about small and midsize carriers.
“This is an extremely decentralized industry, especially on the truckload side,” she says. “The carriers that survive will be the ones who can adapt, diversify their customer base, and avoid shortsighted cost cutting.”
That includes avoiding dangerous deferrals on truck maintenance, which may save money in the short term but can lead to costly breakdowns and safety risks down the road.
Insurance, parts, and driver pay are top pressure points
Fuel prices have moderated in recent months, but insurance costs continue to climb sharply, driven by litigation trends and increasingly complex fraud schemes like cargo theft through identity manipulation or double brokering.
Meanwhile, parts and equipment costs are likely to rise further due to the possibility of new tariffs on heavy-duty components. Driver pay, especially for long-haul routes, remains high and continues to outpace inflation.
“It’s harder than ever to find qualified drivers for OTR work,” says Bur. “And when you can, you have to be prepared to pay a premium.”
Chart from ATA. These forecasts are as of 5/1/25, and policy changes very quickly these days.
Signs of hope—and a cautious path forward
Despite the current climate, there are some bright spots ahead. The freight economy isn’t getting worse, and some categories of freight—like tanker loads and specialized hauling—are performing better than general freight.
Bur believes the trucking industry’s push toward cleaner technology offers long-term potential. “Electrification where it makes sense, cleaner diesel fleets, and removing the federal excise tax on new trucks are all positive moves,” she says.
But perhaps the biggest takeaway Bur offers is about mindset:
“Motor carriers need to be careful not to make survival decisions that undermine their long-term stability. Diversifying your customer base, avoiding dangerous deferrals, and staying alert to regulatory changes will be key to getting through this.”
WEX has your back, and we’re here for the long haul
WEX provides the support your OTR business needs during both difficult times and times of growth. With many decades of experience in the trucking industry, WEX knows how you operate and builds products and services based on the specific needs of your industry.
In our discussion with the ATA’s Lindsay Bur, we outlined how fraud can particularly impact your bottom line during times of economic uncertainty. Preventing fraud comes down to having the right systems in place in advance of an attack. A trucking fuel card program that gives you visibility, control, and built-in fraud protection is one of the most effective ways to avoid fraudster threats to your business.
With WEX, you get:
- Built-in fraud controls | [Customizable/Optional] Purchase limits | Two-factor authentication with Dynamic Prompt: Catch suspicious transactions before they impact your bottom line when you elect to use Dynamic Prompt
- Detailed, line-item transaction data (Level III – where available): See what was purchased, by whom, and where
- Real-time alerts | Customizable reporting: Stay informed and in control
- A closed-loop fuel network: Limit exposure and manage risk more effectively
- Support and guidance: WEX has been around for 42+ years – our team knows your business and what you need
If you’re actively looking for ways to mitigate this turbulent economy, reduce fraud, and gain visibility into your fuel spend, the right partner can make all the difference. Smart fraud prevention uses data to predict and prevent issues, and keeps your business moving and your spend right where you want it.
Practical takeaways for trucking executives:
- Monitor trade policy closely: Tariffs can affect both inbound freight volumes and the cost of parts
- Reconsider cost deferrals: Delaying maintenance or new truck purchases could cause bigger problems later
- Invest in insurance risk management: Rising premiums make safety, driver training, and litigation avoidance more important than ever
- Diversify your customer mix: Relying on one type of freight or trade partner creates vulnerability
- Stay engaged with industry groups: ATA and others can provide guidance, data, and advocacy during policy shifts
Next in the series: How data analytics help trucking companies navigate economic challenges
Learn more: Read the first article in the series or download our Fuel cost planning checklist to help your business prepare for uncertainty with confidence.
Learn more on how to better manage your over-the-road fleet:
All fleet cards are not the same, and different types of fuel cards suit the needs of different kinds and sizes of businesses. View WEX’s fleet card comparison chart to see which fleet fuel card is right for you.